Genealogical research is based on facts. But we do rely on some educated guesses to lead our research in the right direction. This is necessary when there are just too many holes in the story of our ancestor. I have found that sometimes, there really aren't as many holes as we think. We just don't consider all the evidence, and we don't put all the pieces together.
This is where writing a family narrative is very important. It forces us to fill in the details, to answer the questions of why our ancestors did the things they did, moved where they did, how they met each other, and so on.
There are two tools that I use to do this. The first is creating a timeline for each ancestor. Most genealogy software helps with this. Putting things in order helps put everything in perspective. When you study an ancestor's timeline, you see gaps, where you don't have much information, and points where they made a major change in their life. You start to see their life as they lived it. You start to ask questions and try to get answers. The timeline leads your research in specific directions and a bit deeper, which can be more fruitful that a shotgun approach.
The second tool that I use is an analysis of the ancestor's extended family, of aunts and uncles and cousins in particular. Family is a huge motivator for our ancestor's actions. I have found that seldom did our ancestors strike out for a new land without following others, or at least going in a large group. They needed the support of others. Few were quite as self-reliant as we think. They had support from family and friends, and knowing about these people can help understand why our ancestors did the things they did.
I think of George W. Brady, an ancestor who was born in Cass County, Michigan, and settled in Harrison County, Iowa. What drew him to that spot? No doubt there was a draw to new lands and opportunity in the west. But why Harrison County, Iowa in particular. It turns out that there were a large number of settlers there from Cass County, Michigan, even naming Lagrange Township after their old home in Michigan. Although we may never know what led this group to Harrison County, Iowa, we can be sure the George W. Brady went there because his friends and family went there. It wasn't that he was a follower, but that he needed the support of friends and family and those he could trust. So in our research, it is beneficial to find out what siblings, aunts and uncles, cousins, and in-laws were doing to understand our ancestors.
An aunt told me that my great grandfather, Jonathan Stephenson, an English immigrant, had settled in Indiana and lost a wife in childbirth there before going to Iowa. But nothing more was passed down and the details were sketchy and difficult to prove not knowing the exact location. But when I discovered that he had two uncles who left England earlier for Indiana, I was able to find my Jonathan's marriage there. He went where he had family so he could get his start in America. Finding that family was key to proving a family anecdote.
When you look at your ancestor's extended family you might find a scandal or tragedy. But maybe you'll just find some interesting stories, and that isn't that what we are all looking for?
So lay out a timeline for each of our ancestors. See what questions are raised. Expand your research into the extended family. Direct your research in ways that will answer the new questions you have. Use your results to write the story of your ancestor, a story that is more than dates and places, but a real story. Our ancestors each had their own story, and our job is to find it.